elseblog - Reflecting on the safety performance of the commercial aviation industry in 2023
In the ever-evolving world of aviation, safety is paramount. Reflecting on the safety performance of the commercial aviation industry in 2023, we embark on a journey to discern trends, compare key indicators, and unravel the implications for our aviation insurance business.
Setting the Stage: A Year in Review In the year 2023, our skies witnessed one accident within the commercial aviation sector. While inevitably tragic, these results position 2023 as one of the safest years in the history of commercial aviation, without any fatal accidents involving large jet-powered aircraft. As we navigate these statistics, it is imperative to contextualize these figures against the backdrop of a resurging post-pandemic traffic, which only recently regained its global 2019 levels and was initially expected to generate significant disruptions as operators scrambled to ramp back up their operations.
Unraveling Trends: A Story in Numbers Behind the numbers lies a tale of trends and patterns. Analyzing accident data reveals a steady decrease in the number of accidents over the years, which correlates with the increased share of flights operating last generation aircraft. Indeed, the accident rates of latest-generation aircraft are observed to be up to three times lower compared to the prior generation[1].
Trust the Process: Not Just Fewer Events While advancements in the systems and technologies employed in the aviation industry have undoubtedly contributed to the improvement of safety standards, it is essential to recognize that aviation inherently carries certain risks. A report from the Federal Aviation Administration[2] highlighted a concerning aspect—2023 witnessed the highest number of major runway incursion incidents since 2016, with 19 near-miss incidents. However, this data point serves as a testament to the efficacy of safety procedures developed over the years, preventing these events from escalating into catastrophic occurrences.
In the Wake of Change: Implications for Aviation Insurance As aviation risk professionals, it is incumbent upon us to decipher the narrative these trends convey. The observed patterns have a direct bearing on the results of the market. From elseco’s perspective, our ultimate loss ratio forecasts position 2023 as one of the best performing years since the inception of our airline insurance proposition. The evolving landscape prompts a contemplation of how these trends influence insurance premiums. Are we witnessing a paradigm shift in how risks are assessed and priced within the industry? These are questions we must grapple with as we navigate the future of aviation insurance.
Conclusion: Embracing the Future with Informed Vigilance The safety performance of the commercial aviation industry in 2023 unfolds as a dynamic narrative. Whether our journey leads us towards safer skies or presents challenges, understanding the story told by the data is pivotal.
As we adapt our strategies and refine our risk assessments, we pave the way for a future where aviation continues to soar securely. Our commitment to safety, informed by the lessons of the past and the challenges of the present, will guide us as we navigate the skies ahead.
[1] Source: “A Statistical Analysis of Commercial Aviation Accidents 1958 - 2022” - Airbus[2] Source: “Near Misses and Runway-Traffic Jams: The Risks Your Flight Faces at the Airport” – The Wall Street Journal – December 23rd, 2023